Cuba's Energy Woes: A Looming Crisis Without Venezuelan Oil
Cuba's energy crisis is about to get even more dire, and the implications are far-reaching.
For years, Cuba has been grappling with an energy crisis, and its reliance on Venezuela for fuel has been a critical lifeline. However, with the recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela, Cuba faces the prospect of losing this vital supply chain, exacerbating an already challenging situation. In the short term, Cuba may turn to its oil-rich neighbors like Mexico for support, but a long-term solution is imperative to address the root causes of this crisis and enhance Cuba's energy security.
The energy crisis in Cuba has resulted in near-daily blackouts and gas shortages, impacting the lives of its residents. This crisis stems from years of underinvestment in the country's transmission network, causing power plants to operate below capacity. As a result, Cuba's energy supply falls far short of meeting consumer demand. Cubans have had to adapt, investing in charcoal stoves, rechargeable batteries, and fans, which are often unaffordable for many.
In March of last year, Cuba's national electrical grid collapsed, leaving most of its 10 million residents without power. Major tourist hotels relied on generators, while others had no access to electricity at all. This has sparked mass protests, with residents demanding that the government address the crisis.
Venezuela has emerged as one of Cuba's primary oil suppliers in recent years. Despite its declining oil production, Venezuela was shipping an average of 26,500 barrels per day (bpd) to Cuba last year, according to ship tracking data and internal documents from state-run PDVSA. This supply was estimated to cover around 50% of Cuba's oil deficit, with Venezuela accounting for approximately 10% of Cuba's trade in 2025.
However, since the U.S. intervention in Venezuela earlier this month, no cargoes have reportedly left Venezuelan ports bound for Cuba. Thirty-two members of Cuba's armed forces and intelligence services were killed during the U.S. attack. President Donald Trump has since issued a warning to Cuba, urging it to sign an agreement with Washington to ensure the continuation of much-needed oil supplies from Venezuela.
Trump took to his Truth Social platform, declaring, "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!" He further emphasized, "I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE." Shortly after, Trump elaborated, "Cuba lived off large amounts of oil and money from Venezuela. In return, Cuba provided 'Security Services' for the last two Venezuelan dictators." He added, "But not anymore! Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last week's U.S.A. attack, and Venezuela doesn't need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years. Venezuela now has the United States of America, the most powerful military in the World (by far!), to protect them, and protect them we will."
Cuba's president, Miguel Diaz-Canel, responded by asserting Cuba's independence and sovereignty on the X social media platform. He wrote, "Cuba does not attack; it has been attacked by the U.S. for 66 years, and it does not threaten; it prepares, ready to defend the homeland to the last drop of blood." Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez also emphasized Cuba's right to import fuel from any willing suppliers.
With the halt of Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba, Mexico has stepped in to fill the gap. According to a Financial Times article, Mexico surpassed Venezuela as Cuba's main oil supplier in 2025. However, President Claudia Sheinbaum clarified that Mexico is not shipping significantly more oil to Cuba than in previous years. She stated, "We are not sending more oil than we have historically... Of course, with the current situation in Venezuela, Mexico has obviously become an important supplier. Before, it was Venezuela."
Mexico is estimated to have sent an average of 12,284 bpd of crude to Cuba in 2025, contributing 44% of the Caribbean island's crude imports. Meanwhile, Venezuela exported an estimated 9,528 bpd of oil to Cuba, accounting for 34% of its oil imports.
The Trump administration is not pleased with Mexico's ongoing export of crude to Cuba, which may lead to increased pressure on President Sheinbaum to curb these shipments due to the upcoming review of the North American USMCA free trade agreement. Florida Republican Congressman Carlos Giménez recently issued a threat, "Make no mistake: if the Sheinbaum government continues to give away free oil to the terrorist dictatorship in Havana, there will be serious consequences as we renegotiate the USMCA."
As the threats intensify, several Latin American countries feel the pressure from their northern aggressor to alter their behavior. President Trump is strongly urging Cuba to sign an agreement with Washington to secure its oil supply and alleviate its energy crisis. Meanwhile, Mexico faces growing pressure to reduce its increasingly vital oil exports to Cuba.
This complex situation highlights the interconnectedness of global energy politics and the potential consequences for countries caught in the crossfire. The future of Cuba's energy security remains uncertain, and the impact on its residents' daily lives is a pressing concern.
Written by Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
